The above pretty much sums it up! If you live in North Carolina right now the weather folks are having a field day with the upcoming “weather event”. A week out they started the predictions. Every day there are numerous updates.

It’s anybody’s guess at this point. Some say ice and up to two inches. Some say snow up to 12 inches. Some say rain. Some say snow and ice. Some say a wintry mix of epic proportions. My sister reminded me of days long ago when we just woke up and discovered what the weather was and maybe that was a simpler time.

So I decided to look up all the different models that the weather professionals use to forecast the weather and apparently there are 4 major ways that the forecasting is done.

According to my Google search:

Here are four key methods:

1. Qualitative Methods

• Focus: Subjective insights, intuition, and experience, especially useful for new products or vague situations.
• Examples: Delphi method (expert panel), market research, expert opinion.

2. Time Series Methods

• Focus: Analyzing historical data patterns (trends, seasonality, cycles) to predict the future.
• Examples: Moving averages, exponential smoothing, trend projection.

3. Causal/Econometric Models

• Focus: Using complex statistical relationships between variables (e.g., advertising spend vs. sales).
• Examples: Simple and multiple linear regression.

4. Simulation Models

• Focus: Creating complex models that incorporate many variables and randomness to simulate different future possibilities.
• Examples: Monte Carlo analysis, risk modeling.

Note: Some sources group these differently, often highlighting specific financial methods (like straight-line, moving average, simple/multiple regression) as the “four types,” but the broader categories above cover the fundamental approaches.

So all I know is that I am going to be ready for whatever happens. If we lose power due to ice or downed trees on lines that bring power into our development (all our utilities are underground but the problem lies in the lines that feed those ) I have flashlights, candles, batteries, gas fireplace and a gas grill to heat stuff up. I have freezers organized and a back up power supply on the big freezer. I have coolers ready to fill with ice to house refrigerated stuff to eat and plenty of food options to eat that don’t require any heating or cooling. I have gas in my car, snowplowing lined up for the driveway and shovels and snow brushes and deicer ready to use.

I have plenty of books to read to keep me occupied and a couple of warm cats to snuggle as well as a warm hubby. So bring it on. If I go quiet for awhile you know we lost power and didn’t get the Starlink set up . It’s all good — I could use a few down days as long as everyone stays safe.

Tell me– how do you prepare for a snow event ?